Narendra Modi’s party was set to lose its majority for the first time after falling well short of an expected election landslide, hampering ambitious plans to change the Indian constitution and cement his grip on power.
Mr Modi’s BJP party is projected to win the election in the world’s largest democracy, early results showed, but lose dozens of seats in parliament. He will now have to rely on alliances with smaller parties to secure an overall majority.
Stocks slumped on speculation that the reduced majority would hamper Mr Modi’s ability to push through reforms.
Shares in the main listed unit of Adani Enterprises – owned by key Modi ally Gautam Adani – dropped by almost £10 billion, before recovering.
Despite the results, Mr Modi said India has placed its faith in the ruling coalition “for a third consecutive time”.
“We will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people,” he added.
Mr Modi has been credited with transforming India in his image as the country has become the largest by population and is projected to be the third-largest economy in the world. Critics say he has used Hindu nationalism to charge his populism.
His BJP was predicted to win a landslide “super majority” that would have enabled Mr Modi to change the constitution to move India away from a secular state.
Although the broader alliance that the BJP is part of has surpassed the majority threshold of 272 seats, the BJP’s own seat count has dropped to around 238, way short of its 303 seats in 2019. This has made the party dependent on the alliance partners to form the government.
This prospect is alien to a party that has enjoyed a virtual carte blanche over governance of the country for the past decade. It ushered in far-reaching constitutional and legal changes, reorienting the country away from its secular roots and towards Hindu nationalist agenda.
It did away with the semi-autonomous position of Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim majority state, it passed the Citizenship Amendment Act that made religion a basis for acquiring Indian citizenship and it built a temple dedicated to Ram, Hinduism’s principal deity.
However, early election results suggest the sweeping changes have come at a cost.
“Prime Minister Modi and his party struggling to cross the simple majority of 272 is a sign of fatigue with the Hindu nationalist, communal rhetoric and is also a verdict on the economy,” said Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst for International Crisis Group.
“This is likely to make the BJP allies more demanding and the opposition much stronger, probably leading to changes in policy.”
The opposition Congress Party, the party of the Gandhi dynasty, was set to gain seats in another remarkable turnaround from the weekend when exit polls predicted a dismal performance.
‘Moral and political loss’
It called the strong showing a “moral and political loss” for Mr Modi even though he is expected to be re-elected. Rahul Gandhi, the party’s campaign leader, said voters had “punished” Mr Modi.
Mr Modi himself was run close in his own seat, with a predicted majority of about 1,500 votes, significantly down on the last election.
Meanwhile, the BJP was forced to concede in a constituency where the inauguration of a grand Hindu temple just months ago by Mr Modi was seen as an event that would cement his legacy and the party’s poll victory.
The BJP looked set for heavy losses in the bellwether northern state of Uttar Pradesh, as the opposition Samajwadi Party and Congress raced ahead in more than half its 80 seats, including in Ayodhya city in the Faizabad constituency, where Mr Modi inaugurated the temple in January.
And in Punjab Mr Modi’s party suffered another humiliating blow, with Amritpal Singh, the jailed separatist Sikh leader, winning a seat from prison.
Similarly, the party didn’t win along the expected lines in West Bengal, with 42 seats, and Maharashtra, with 48 seats.
“PM Modi will be sworn in for the third time. Congress will sit in opposition for the third time,” said Jaiveer Shergill, the BJP spokesman, in defiance at the string of unexpectedly poor results.
“Introspection about the slide and the decrease in the seats will be done threadbare. We will put our ear to the ground,” he said.
Observers at the BJP victory party noted that the atmosphere was considerably muted. A party member was deployed to enthuse the crowds to applaud their leader, Bloomberg reported, a marked departure from the 2019 election, when the margin of victory triggered instant celebration.
